Not long into the enforcement of the no-fly zone in Libya, a military  stalemate appears to be taking shape. Forces loyal to Muammar Gadhafi  continue to hold key towns against incursions by Libyan rebels--and the  fragile international coalition that has been carrying out airstrikes  over the past 11 days in order to protect Libyan civilians from attack  is now at odds over whether the Libyan rebels require more direct  military assistance.
Coalition members are discussing a range of options,  including increased NATO close air support to aid the rebels engaged in  direct combat with Gadhafi's forces and efforts--in all likelihood  carried out covertly--to arm and train the rebels. In an exclusive  report for Reuters, Mark Hosenball writes that Obama has issued a secret  presidential finding authorizing  covert U.S. support for the Libyan rebels--a move that will almost  certainly raise the stakes in Libya for the United States and its  coalition partners, while making it harder to assure the ambivalent U.S.  public that the conflict in Libya will produce a quick resolution.
Despite the reported finding, the White House, for  its part, insisted that "no decision" on arming the rebels had yet been  made.
"We're not ruling it out or ruling it in," White  House press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement Wednesday. "We're  assessing and reviewing options for all types of assistance that we  could provide to the Libyan people," in consultation, Carney added, with  "international partners."
And talk of direct military assistance to the rebels  has some Washington lawmakers and policymakers uneasy. They are leery of  wading directly into a Libyan civil war, as opposed to the more limited  kind of humanitarian intervention that President Barack Obama outlined  in his speech to the nation on Monday. Then, the president stressed that  the United States was intervening in order to avert a massacre of  Libyan civilians that would have "stained the conscience of the world."
But now statements from the administration seem to  signal a shift in thinking. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking  at a conference on Libya in London Tuesday, said her reading of the UN  Security Council resolution 1973 on Libya allowed for the arming of the  Libyan rebels. At the same time, she insisted that the United States had  not yet made any decision to do so.
A senior European diplomat, who spoke anonymously due  to the sensitive nature of the ongoing discussions, said Wednesday that  his country endorses a similar interpretation of the UN resolution--but  added that his government favors "tipping the balance" decisively in  favor of the Libyan opposition.
Former U.S. officials who have worked on Libya said  they suspect that any plan to arm and train the rebels would be carried  out covertly. Such initiatives would likely take shape via neighboring  Egypt, the officials said—thereby bypassing the consensus-driven command  structure of the NATO-led coalition that assumed command of Libya  military operations Wednesday.
"I think that if we do arm the rebels, we will never  hear about it," said one former U.S. official who has worked on Libya,  requesting anonymity in order to share her views frankly.  "The Libyan  rebels have said they want training by the Egyptian military. They say  they don't want Americans on the ground.  The Egyptian military will  give them stuff, some of which they've bought from us, it will be called  technical assistance, that is how it's going to happen."
"The Egyptians really are already in there training,"  the former official said. She noted Egypt has made a point of keeping  its role quiet--but that the United States is likely already aware of  it.
Other analysts noted the years-long U.S. effort to  train the security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan--and wondered, given  that ongoing effort, just how coalition members might manage to  effectively arm and train the Libyan rebels in a relatively short time  frame.
"I don't know how you do it effectively," said former  State Department Middle East official Joel Rubin. "Look at the lessons  learned of our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, in training their  security forces, how challenging and multi-year [a task] that is. We  have been providing less complex weaponry to those forces than would be  required to militarily-dislodge Gadhafi from outside. So I think one has  to really recognize that that is the kind of effort that would be  required to arm the rebels."
"It does feel like we are watching a stalemate  develop," Rubin, now with the progressive National Security Network,  added. "And I hate saying that ... We might see a divided Libya." Under  this scenario, Rubin explained, Gadhafi would be entrenched in the  capital Tripoli and the western part of the country, while the rebels  would hold Benghazi and eastern Libya.
But Rubin also stressed that the military situation  on the ground will play an important role in "shifting the dynamics  inside of Tripoli, which is really going to be the ultimate determinant  of Gadhafi's fate. Not fighting in Misrata."
Western officials and analysts also noted that  Gadhafi regime insiders have been placing phone calls to western  embassies and intermediaries, with the aim of opening up negotiations to  secure a cease-fire arrangement or exit plan for themselves or Gadhafi.
Experts say that such calls are probably getting a  thorough hearing. Even the governments in the coalition that have pushed  hard against Gadhafi have said they would be amenable to a deal that  could ensure Gadhafi leaves Libya.
"There has to be an escape valve," Rubin said. 
The former U.S. official also noted reports Wednesday that Musa  Kusa--Libya's foreign minister and former longtime intelligence chief  --was in Europe. That seemed to indicate, in the official's view, that  some sort of negotiations for a ceasefire, or an exit plan for Gadhafi  associates, may be under way. 
But the UK Foreign Office, confirming that Kusa had arrived in England,  said that Kusa had defected. "He has told us that he is resigning his  post," the UK  Foreign Office said in a statement, according to the BBC. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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